Friday, January 21, 2022

It's Time to Live

Jordan Peterson Finally Shares His Views On The Pandemic

New technology could lead to coal without CO2...cars/trucks/planes?

The great deception of the last 40 years is that we need to reduce carbon emissions.   

Iron Fertilization can reduce atmospheric CO2 levels as much as we want, but there is no immediate need for it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_fertilization#:~:text=Iron%20fertilization%20is%20the%20intentional,surface%20to%20stimulate%20phytoplankton%20production.&text=Large%20algal%20blooms%20can%20be,blooms%20can%20nourish%20other%20organisms.

Nature can handle pollution up to a certain point until it becomes too much for nature to handle.  Increased CO2 levels have benefited the environment due to increased plant growth.   An argument can be made that plants were CO2 starved.  We don't want to throw away something that is actually very beneficial.

Weather-related deaths are down 98% over the last 100 years.  Cold kills more people than heat.

I don't consider CO2 a pollutant until it becomes too much.  That might be in the 800 to 1000 PPM range.  Long before we reach that point, we will be running out of most fossil fuels and Nuclear Fusion will likely be a reality.

On Thu, Jan 20, 2022, at 2:09 AM Larry  wrote:



China's Ugly, Disturbing yet Open Secret

Thursday, January 20, 2022

37%

Results We included 3,442 Omicron-positive cases, 9,201 Delta-positive cases, and 471,545 test-negative controls. After 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccine, vaccine effectiveness against Delta infection declined steadily over time but recovered to 93% (95%CI, 92-94%) ≥7 days after receiving an mRNA vaccine for the third dose. In contrast, receipt of 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines was not protective against Omicron. Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron was 37% (95%CI, 19-50%) ≥7 days after receiving an mRNA vaccine for the third dose

Conclusions Two doses of COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to protect against infection by Omicron. A third dose provides some protection in the immediate term, but substantially less than against Delta. 




Wednesday, January 19, 2022

What is the price of Lasagna?



I'm a big fin of this lasagna. For years the price was $3. Recently the price went up to $3.52, so I thought this is due to inflation, nothing I can do about it. I put in a Walmart curbside pickup order last night, and the lasagna was priced at $4.68. Either we have a big bout of monetary inflation, which we do, or there is a shortage of the product. Today it is listed out of stock so the shortage theory applies. Rather than pay $4.68 for what is a single serving for me, I ordered the Walmart brand, which I don't like as much but it is okay. That is the normal reaction to price inflation. Sometimes people choose cheaper alternatives.

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ideology trends since 1992

I think that these political labels have fuzzy definitions, but the survey is based on people's self indentification.

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Larry 


Steadily 20$% of moderates became liberals



A moderate dominated democrat party became evenly split for 4 years then became liberal dominated



Conservative dominated Republicans became overwhelmingly conservative



Independent relatively unchanged




Thursday, January 13, 2022

Vaccines don't protect against the spread of the disease?

I am hearing repeatedly the misinformation that the COVID vaccines don't protect against the spread of COVID.  What if this is true?  My response to things like this is to try to find as much information as possible.

After looking at a number of sources, I conclude that it is all relative.  If you are vaccinated then you are less likely to catch the disease and spread it, but this is less effective against the Delta variant.  Still, you have about 75% protection against the Delta variant, but this could wane after 3 months.  Against the Omicron Variant, you can get pretty good protection with a booster, but two vaccinations might not be enough.  This protection might also wane in 3 months, 

However, vaccinations give longer-lasting protection against severe disease.  Being vaccinated is much better off than not being vaccinated.

Personally, I would be happy to get a booster every three months or get the new vaccine for the Omicron variant.

You are much more likely to be hospitalized if you are unvaccinated.  

Vaccines protect against the spread of COVID:
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/how-vaccines-reduce-transmission
https://www.osfhealthcare.org/blog/fully-vaccinated-less-likely-to-pass-covid-19-to-others/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/11/17/fact-check-covid-19-vaccines-protect-against-infection-transmission/6403678001/
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/vaccinated-people-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-but-its-still-more-likely-if-youre-unvaccinated
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/10/13/do-coronavirus-vaccines-prevent-transmission-of-the-virus
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583
https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/mounting-evidence-suggests-covid-vaccines-do-reduce-transmission-how-does-work
https://theconversation.com/no-vaccinated-people-are-not-just-as-infectious-as-unvaccinated-people-if-they-get-covid-171302
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/dec/09/facebook-posts/no-covid-19-vaccines-do-not-increase-transmission-/
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1112

Vaccines offer some protection against the spread of COVID:
https://fullfact.org/online/neil-oliver-vaccines-effect/

Vaccines help protect against the spread of the Delta Variant:
https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/vaccination-reduces-transmission-to-unvaccinated-household-members-by-63-for-delta-variant
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/covid-vaccines-protect-against-delta-dont-fully-stop-disease-spread
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risk-of-vaccinated-covid-transmission-is-not-low/
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/231557/covid-vaccines-effective-household-transmission-delta/
https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected

Vaccines protect against the spread of the Delta variant but for only 3 months:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y

Vaccines are 75% effective against the Delta Variant:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/delta-variant-vaccines-protect-from-severe-disease-but-do-not-stop-all-transmission
https://www.rollcall.com/2021/07/30/cdc-report-shows-vaccinated-people-can-spread-covid-19/

Breakthrough infections only occur in a small proportion of vaccinated people:
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-breakthrough-infection-transmission

Vaccines are safe and effective.  Less effective against variants:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/vaccines-faq 
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/vaccine-benefits.html?s_cid=10466:should%20i%20vaccinate:sem.ga:p:RG:GM:gen:PTN:FY21
https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/6-myths-about-covid-19-vaccines-debunked

A large number of cases are among the unvaccinated:
https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2021-11-19/why-the-covid-19-vaccines-do-not-stop-the-virus-from-circulating.html

Vaccines do not prevent spread within households, but unvaccinated more likely:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/covid-vaccinated-likely-unjabbed-infect-cohabiters-study-suggests

Vaccinated people carry less infectious virus particles:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/11/vaccinated-spread-the-coronavirus/620650/
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/10/12/1044553048/covid-data-vaccines-breakthrough-infections-transmission

Boosters protect against Omicron:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59696499
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/by-the-numbers-covid-19-vaccines-and-omicron
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-cannot-escape-t-cells-boosters-protect-households-omicron-2021-12-29/
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/how-booster-shots-can-help-protect-you-from-omicron
https://www.uchealth.org/today/booster-shots-protection-against-omicron/
https://www.prevention.com/health/health-conditions/a38461092/omicron-covid-variant-vaccine-booster-efficacy/
https://www.urmc.rochester.edu/news/story/omicron-has-arrived-heres-what-we-know-so-far
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-effective-are-covid-19-vaccines-against-omicron
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/14/1063947940/vaccine-protection-vs-omicron-infection-may-drop-to-30-but-does-cut-severe-disea
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/omicron-variant.html
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/vaccine-efficacy-data-shows-how-shots-protect-against-omicron-covid-variant/2716776/
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccines-that-protect-best-against-omicron-variant/85-aefef265-550a-4493-ab61-41158bad6f5a
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-mrna-booster-vaccine-offers-best-protection-against-omicron
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/how-booster-shots-can-help-protect-you-from-omicron
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20211220/moderna-booster-increases-protection-against-omicron
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/significant-increase-protection-vs-omicron-mrna-boosters-study-says-2021-12-22/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/12/20/moderna-booster-effective-against-omicron-study-shows-covid-19-news/8963500002/

Booster protection against Omicron wanes in 10 weeks but prevents severe disease.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/health/booster-protection-omicron.html
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232657/boosters-vital-mitigate-impact-omicron-lose/

Omicron Vaccine might be ready by March:
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Monday, January 10, 2022

Levin points out the real insurrection that took place

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/here-is-the-real-insurrection-that-took-place-levin/vi-AASBogo?ocid=msedgntp

It appears that from videos that the majority of people who entered the Capitol Building were not violent, but a few were.  Conservative sources claim that because these people were not armed that it was not an insurrection and that our system of government was never under threat.  However, even if the number of violent people was a small number, in my opinion, that is still an insurrection.

Sunday, January 9, 2022

Tucker Carlson: NPR is destroying itself from within | Fox News

Biden administration guidance prioritizes race in administering COVID drugs

One such "risk factor" is being a race or ethnicity that is not White due to "longstanding systemic health and social inequities."

"Non-white race or Hispanic/Latino ethnicity should be considered a risk factor, as longstanding systemic health and social inequities have contributed to an increased risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19," the memo reads.

In guidelines issued by the state of Utah for the distribution of monoclonal antibodies in the state, residents who are "non-white race or Hispanic/Latinx ethnicity" receive 2 additional points when calculating their "COVID-19 risk score."

"Race/ethnicity continues to be a risk factor for severe COVID-19 disease, and the Utah COVID Risk Score is one approach to address equitable access to hard hit communities," the Utah guidance stated, adding a reminder that national guidance from the FDA "specifically states that race and ethnicity may be considered when identifying patients most likely to benefit from this lifesaving treatment."

A healthcare worker attaches an IV infusion to a patient's hand during a monoclonal antibody treatment in the parking lot at Wayne Health Detroit Mack Health Center in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., on Thursday, Dec. 23, 2021. 

Similarly, the framework issued by the state of Minnesota advises clinicians and health systems to "consider heightened risk of progression to severe COVID-19 associated with race and ethnicity when determining eligibility" for the allocation for monoclonal antibody therapies.

"FDA's acknowledgment means that race and ethnicity alone, apart from other underlying health conditions, may be considered in determining eligibility for mAbs," the framework states. "It is ethically appropriate to consider race and ethnicity in mAb eligibility decisions when data show elevated risk of poor COVID-19 outcomes for Black, Indigenous and other people of color (BIPOC populations), and that this risk cannot be adequately addressed by determining eligibility based on underlying health conditions (perhaps due to underdiagnosis of health conditions that elevate risk of poor COVID-19 outcomes in these populations)."



Friday, January 7, 2022

Joseph Stalin and Winston Churchill in "Conversation"

He gives the person's name before the quote, although I would have done it the other way around.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wm_5DbAFrg

Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

Fact correcting a supreme court justice during oral arguments

During oral arguments on the Biden administration's mandate on private businesses for employees to be either vaccinated or frequently tested, Sotomayor drastically overstated the number of young people who have fallen severely ill from coronavirus.

"We have hospitals that are almost at full capacity with people severely ill on ventilators. We have over 100,000 children, which we've never had before, in serious condition, many on ventilators," she said.

While there are more children hospitalized now than at any point during the pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the seven-day average of pediatric hospitalizations was around 3,700 this week, according to the Washington Post. As with prior strains of the virus, younger people are at far less risk than old ones of severe outcomes from the coronavirus.

"Fact-checkers. Hello?" Fox News contributor Joe Concha asked in response to Sotomayor.

"Justice Sotomayor’s comment on 100,000 children in serious condition with covid is such a flagrantly untrue statement she should have to correct it after the argument. It’s embarrassing for the Supreme Court to allow that factual inaccuracy to occur in an oral argument," OutKick's Clay Travis tweeted.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/sonia-sotomayor-roasted-false-information-about-child-covid-hospitalizations

Coronavirus Deranges the Immune System in Complex and Deadly Ways

“Covid is deranging the immune system,” said John Wherry, director of the Penn Medicine Immune Health Institute and another co-author of the January study. “Some patients, from their very first visit, seem to have an immune system in hyperdrive.

Although doctors are researching ways to overcome immune disorders in covid patients, new treatments will take time to develop. Scientists are still trying to understand why some immune cells become hyperactive — and why some refuse to stand down when the battle is over."

https://khn.org/news/article/covid-autoimmune-virus-rogue-antibodies-cytokine-storm-severe-disease/

How the World Stopped Fearing China

Saturday, January 1, 2022

Can the Police STOP You For.... - YouTube

Anti-vax

This is regarding all the anti-vax people.  In the United States, this was originally around 20% of the population but now it might be slightly less.  (https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/12/26/heres-how-covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-has-and-hasnt-changed-over-2021/?sh=7ffac54673ba)   There are some unwilling to take the COVID vaccine who otherwise would not be anti-vaccine.  However, around 40% of the U.S. population is still not fully vaccinated.

An individual who is anti-vax might not catch the disease, or if they do they might not spread it to other people, but statistics say that they do catch the disease then they are likely to spread it to multiple people.  The anti-vax crowd as a whole is causing more people to get sick and die by spreading the disease, but also by spreading a great deal of misinformation.  I routinely get emails from friends with completely absurd statements about the vaccines that are not backed by science and are easily debunked.  People follow this information like it was the gospel truth.  So-called experts lacking any form of relevant credentials promote this information without backing it up with any convincing evidence or peer-reviewed studies.  When you look at the particulars of the claims being made, they fall apart quickly.  Yet, if you try to confront people with evidence, they just double down on their anti-vax position.

My frustration with the anti-vax crowd is turning to anger.  I have more than one family member who would most likely die if they were to catch COVID-19.  The anti-vax people care a great deal about their risk with the vaccines, which is so minuscule that it is hardly worth mentioning, but they don't seem to care at all about the much greater and very real risk to other people.  If the death rate of the disease were around 25%, I don't think that we would be having this discussion, but since the death rate is only around 2% for known cases, it is in an area where people start to think that it is not important.  Because the disease mostly kills the elderly and people with comorbidities, I often hear the excuse that those people would have died anyway.  However, those people's lives still matter, and they most likely would live years with whatever medical conditions they have.  They don't deserve to have their lives cut short by a mostly preventable disease.

In the year 2020, we had 20% more deaths than normal. 

There is much misinformation floating around about how the vaccines don't prevent you from getting the disease, nor prevent you from spreading it.  However, the data shows that vaccinated people are much less likely to get the disease, spread it, have severe symptoms, get hospitalized, and die.  Getting any vaccine is playing the odds; it doesn't fully protect you, but it is far better than nothing.

People are confused because the immunity from the vaccines has waned over time and the vaccines are less effective against the variants.  However, we always knew that any form of immunity would wane over time and that eventually we would need boosters.  The vaccines were designed to combat the original COVID-19 disease, against which they are incredibly effective.  We always knew that variants could arise and that we might need different or modified vaccines.

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Best wishes,

John Coffey

Daily COVID Cases

First, we set a record with 313,000 new daily cases. It dropped for a couple of days, but then we got numbers of 339,000, 572,000, and 443,000.

COVID Antibodies | How Long Do They Last?