I have been saying that Pennsylvania will decide the election. Most of the other states are solid enough that it is going to come down to Pennsylvania, which is super close.
The vast majority have already made up their minds, so a small percentage in one state could decide the national election. The result may depend upon turnout.
The Bloomberg poll appears to be an outlier from the other polls. It appears to exaggerate the Democrat advantage and was way off in the last two elections. If I were to cut the Bloomberg margin for Harris in half, I get an average poll result of 0.1% for Trump. Otherwise, Harris is ahead by 0.1%. The bottom line is that the state is too close to call. (Rumor has it that the Harris campaign is worried about Pennsylvania, but the Trump campaign should be worried too.)
Early voting in Pennsylvania was supposed to start tomorrow but has been delayed by court challenges by 3rd party candidates.
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