Tuesday, August 4, 2020

Climate change

It has taken 140 years for the Earth's temperature to go up 1-degree celsius. The climate crisis is just a political agenda pushed by a very biased IPCC. Their actions have shown extreme bias, such as not hiring anyone who did not already believe in catastrophic man-made warning, which is what they are supposed to evaluate, trying to censor papers by skeptical scientists, trying to hide the massive 2007 decline in temperature, calling for the elimination of capitalism, having 1/3 of their staff be members of an environmental lobbying group, which is a conflict of interest since they are a government organization part of the UN, and finally calling catastrophic man-made warning "their religion."

The predictions are that we will go from 400 parts per million atmospheric CO2 to 800 parts per million by the year 2100, at which time we will have used up most fossil fuels. The Climate Sensitivity to the doubling of CO2 is predicted to be 1.5 to 3 degrees Celsius depending upon who you ask. This predicted Climate Sensitivity has gone down considerably over time to better match the observations.

We are not in a climate crisis. Deadly storms have dropped in half. All the climate models have predicted more heat than what reality has produced. The climate modelers admit that they can't accurately predict the effect of clouds, which we will get more of as the Earth warms. There is widespread disagreement about whether clouds produce negative or positive feedback. For 20 years the skeptics have predicted that clouds would cause negative feedback.

The benefit of increased CO2 on the greening of the Earth is massive, allowing us to have record crop yields to feed a larger world population. Sea level rise has been modest, although still potentially a danger.

CO2 does not block infrared radiation. It scatters it in all directions. You have to keep doubling the level of CO2 to get the same effect as the last doubling, which means that there is a logarithmic return. So it is logical that as CO2 goes up that we would reach a new temperature equilibrium.

There is strong evidence that the sun and the Earth's precessing orbit in something called the Milankovich cycles are the primary drivers of temperature. Geological data over long time periods show temperature increases preceding CO2 increases and not the other way around. This is because temperature increases cause the oceans to release CO2 gasses stored in them. To be honest, the temperature cycle is augmented by the released CO2.

Sadly, we are running out of CO2. Look at the CO2 level data for the last 20 million years and you will see a nosedive until humans reversed this trend. (Natural processes sequester CO2 underground as it combines with rock in the presence of moisture.) This is the reason that we have been in the Pleistocene ice age for the last 2.5 million years. During the last period of glaciation, just over 15,000 years ago, the CO2 level dropped to just above the level that all plants die from lack of CO2. If this trend were allowed to continue, had we not intervened, eventually, the CO2 levels will get too low to sustain plant life. The next period of glaciation will happen in about 10,000 to 15,000 years unless we do something to prevent it, and these periods of glaciations over geological time periods have caused massive declines in human population.

The brief warm period that the Earth experienced over the last 10,000 years is a bit of anomaly. It is no coincidence that all of human civilization arose during this brief warm period, starting in the Fertile Crescent in the middle east. It is here that 10,000 years ago humans first learned how to use grains, and this gave rise to civilization leading to everything we know today. (Interestingly enough, about 300 years after humans learned to make bread, they learned how to make beer, which has been a major part of human civilization ever since. The ancient Egyptians paid the pyramid builders with beer. They were expert beer makers, and beer was a regular part of the Egyptian diet. They used to make a porridge consisting of beer mixed with grains and eat it for breakfast.)
Best wishes,

John Coffey

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