Thursday, November 5, 2020

How states could flip.

By my calculation, Trump needs roughly 58.8% of the remaining 12% of the vote in Arizona to win the state.  According to CNN, he was getting 59% and a fraction. How they know that I'm not sure.  It seems like the state is still in play.

In Nevada Trump needs 51% of the remaining 25% of the vote.  My feeling is that Nevada will lean Democrat based on some recent state elections.

In Pennsylvania, Biden needs roughly 56% of the remaining 13% of the vote to win the state.  In his speech yesterday, Biden claimed that he would win 75% of the remaining vote in Pennsylvania because they are counting mostly mail-in ballots.  If Biden does win Pennsylvania then it is over.

We should see results soon.  The earliest we will know Pennsylvania is tomorrow.

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