I am updating my calculations from earlier today, and overall it does not look good for Trump.
By my calculation, in Arizona to win the state, Trump needs roughly 56.9% of the remaining 10% of the vote compared to the previous 58.8% of the remaining 12% of the vote . According to an earlier CNN report, he is getting roughly 59%. How they know this I'm not sure. However, it seems like Arizona is still in play.
In Nevada Trump needs 52.5% of the remaining 16% of the vote, compared to the previous 51% of the 25% of the vote. As I predicted, Nevada is not going his way.
In Pennsylvania, Biden needs roughly 51.8% of the remaining 10% of the vote to win the state, compared to the previous 56% of the remaining 13% of the vote.
In his speech yesterday, Biden claimed that he would win 75% of the remaining vote in Pennsylvania because they are counting mostly mail-in ballots. If Biden does win Pennsylvania then it is over.
All of a sudden Georgia is almost tied. Trump's lead has shrunk to 1,800 votes with just 1% of the vote remaining to be counted, about 49,000 votes. In theory, Biden could win Georgia.
Sometime tomorrow most of the counting should be close to 100%.
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