Saturday, June 12, 2021

A Skeptical Look at Climate Science

In response to...

I wrote ...

The controversy centers around what the Climate Sensitivity is to a doubling of CO2. We are told that the atmospheric CO2 level will double to 800 Parts Per Million by the year 2100, at which time we will be running out of most fossil fuels, so all the focus has been on what will happen by the year 2100. The Climate Sensitivity depends upon positive feedback because the direct effect of doubling CO2 is only a change of 1.1 degrees Celsius. The degree of positive feedback has been controversial.

However, they keep moving the goalpost. Original claims of Climate Sensitivity were as high as 5 to 12 degrees Celsius. However, the IPCC now gives a range of 1.5 to 4.5, stating that the predicted average is about 3 degrees. I saw videos from a decade ago stating that we were on course to raise the temperature 3 degrees by the year 2100, but if we take action we could limit that to 2 degrees, and they further state that this would be manageable. However, in the last five years, the wording has shifted to state that we are on course to raise the temperature by 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100, but if we take action we could limit that to 1.5 degrees and this new goal would be manageable. They even have a catchy slogan, "Half a degree makes a difference."

Almost everybody is comparing temperature change to the year 1880 because presumably, that is when the more accurate records were kept. However, the 1880s were a cold period resulting in massive snowstorms that killed hundreds of people. It would an amazing coincidence if the year 1880 had the exact ideal temperature for humans on planet Earth, and everything since then is an aberration.

The atmospheric temperature has only risen about 1 degree Celsius in the last 140 years. This is a slow process giving us plenty of time to adjust. Climate Alarmism has ignored that there are proposed methods of removing CO2 from the atmosphere should we need to, such as Iron Fertilization. However, I don't feel that we will ever need to do this.

Meanwhile, the increased atmospheric CO2 levels have resulted in the greening of the Earth. Crop yields have gone through the roof. Deserts have been slowly shrinking.

If you look at the atmospheric CO2 level over the last 40 million years then you will see that it is in a nosedive. Not just a slight decline, but the CO2 levels have been in an almost vertical drop. The reason for this is that natural processes sequester CO2 with water and rock. We depend upon volcanoes to release CO2 back into the atmosphere, but we haven't had enough volcanoes to maintain past levels. This is why we have been in an ice age for the last 2.5 million years. During the last period of glaciation, the CO2 level got dangerously low, down to 180 parts per million, which is close to the level of 150 parts per million where all terrestrial plants die. We were running out of CO2 until human beings intervened.

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