Monday, November 18, 2019

Are Solid State Batteries About To Change The World?

China plague

There have been three great plague pandemics in human history caused by the bacterium Y. pestis, spreading from Siberia and Mongolia, across Asia, and into Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The first began in A.D. 541 within the Roman Empire, lasted two centuries, and was dubbed the Justinianic Plague. The second, the Black Death, spread from Asia into Italy in 1346 and persisted for 400 years, infecting most of the European population with such devastating outcome—50 million people died on a continent then inhabited by 80 million—that for centuries historians referred to it as the Great Mortality. The third pandemic began in the 1850s in China, spreading across Asia with such ferocity that India, alone, lost 20 million people.



The Real Reason to Panic About China's Plague Outbreak

It's not the disease that's worrisome—it's the Chinese government's response to it.


https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/16/china-bubonic-plague-outbreak-pandemic/

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Hollywood Studios successfully kill Openload

Biased Wikipedia

Approximately half of immigrants living in the United States are from Mexico and other Latin American countries.[72] Many Central Americans are fleeing because of desperate social and economic circumstances created in part by U.S. foreign policy in Central America over many decades. The large number of Central American refugees arriving in the U.S. have been explained as "blowback" to policies such as U.S. military interventions and covert operations that installed or maintained in power authoritarian leaders allied with wealthy land owners and multinational corporations who crush family farming and democratic efforts, which have caused drastically sharp social inequality, wide scale poverty and rampant crime.[73] Economic austerity dictated by neoliberal policies imposed by the International Monetary Fund and its ally, the U.S., has also been cited as a driver of the dire social and economic conditions, as has the U.S. "War on Drugs," which has been understood as fueling murderous gang violence in the region.[74] "The current debate … is almost totally about what to do about immigrants when they get here. But the 800-pound gorilla that's missing from the table is what we have been doing there that brings them here, that drives them here," according to Jeff Faux, an economist who is a distinguished fellow at the Economic Policy Institute.

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Seattle Public Schools Will Start Teaching That Math Is Oppressive – Reason.com

https://reason.com/2019/10/22/seattle-math-oppressive-cultural-woke/

Straight Talk About Soy

Soy is unique in that it contains a high concentration of isoflavones, a type of plant estrogen (phytoestrogen) that is similar in function to human estrogen but with much weaker effects. Soy isoflavones can bind to estrogen receptors in the body and cause either weak estrogenic or anti-estrogenic activity.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/soy/

Society is in rapid decay

The first couple of minutes show just how bad societal decay is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEidCVusDkY

Sunday, October 27, 2019

WIRED: American Roads Are Getting Safer—Unless You're Walking


American Roads Are Getting Safer—Unless You're Walking
A government report finds that vehicle-related deaths fell 2.4% last year. But pedestrian deaths are up 50% in the past decade, and no one knows why.

Read in WIRED: https://apple.news/AAma1P3-yQF65Tj9YmWaQJg



Sunday, October 13, 2019

Christopher Columbus

Columbus's legacy continues to be debated. He was widely venerated in the centuries after his death, but public perceptions have changed as recent scholars have given attention to negative aspects of his life, such as his role in the extinction of the Taíno people, his promotion of slavery, and allegations of tyranny 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Columbus

From what I can tell, Columbus was a cruel person, engaging in torture and disfigurement to enslave a large number of people. 

Best wishes,

John Coffey

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Life Between Now and 2030

Quotation of the day

In this age of political hysteria, we must all educate ourselves on the facts – the actual science. Unfortunately, there seems to be a total lack of awareness about important issues that scientists like myself – who aren't paid by research grants – are concerned about.

Instead, climate science is being used as a political weapon, and the voices of scientists like me are being ignored or even vilified. I was under the impression that in the United States, all voices and arguments should be heard. Climate science is not settled science. If it was, why would there be a continuous flow of money to research it? For example, is AOC aware that in the fossil fuel era, in spite of a four-fold increase in population, deaths have plummeted?

….

Perhaps we should pause and consider why none of the global warming models from two decades ago have come to fruition. Perhaps we should slow down and think about the consequences of allowing our adversaries to supply the world with cheap energy, because one thing is for sure – wind farms and solar panels won't get the job done.

The objective reader should examine all sides of the climate debate and should ask himself: Are the consequences of acting hastily worse than not acting at all? I think many are skeptical of rushing forward. We must rein in the political hysteria and fear-mongering that is driving the climate change agenda.

The Rich Really Do Pay Higher Taxes Than You - Bloomberg

It’s time to be scientific about global warming, says climatologist Judith Curry. | City Journal

In 2005, I had a conversation with Rajendra Pachauri, an Indian railway engineer, who remade himself into a climatologist and became director of the IPCC, which received the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize under his tenure. Pachauri told me, without embarrassment, that, at the UN, he recruited only climatologists convinced of the carbon-dioxide warming explanation, excluding all others. 

Ross McKitrick: Hold the panic: Canada just warmed 1.7 degrees and … thrived | Financial Post

The warming we have had over the last 100 years is so small that if we didn't have meteorologists and climatologists to measure it we wouldn't have noticed it at all

Climatologist Lennart Bengtsson

Friday, October 11, 2019

Aging world population

In 2018, for the first time in history, those aged 65 or older outnumbered children younger than five globally. And the number of people aged 80 years or older is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050

The population aged 65 and older is growing faster than all other age groups, especially as the global birth rate has been plummeting since the second half of the 20th Century. According to the World Health Organization, fertility rates in every region except Africa are near or below what's considered the 'replacement rate' – the level needed to keep a population stable. In most high-income countries this hovers around 2.1 children per woman.




Tuesday, October 1, 2019

The Greatest Mass Murderer of the 20th Century

https://youtu.be/gBF3xSsahT8

Transcript: Trump's Ukraine Call Released By White House : NPR

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/25/764052120/read-transcript-of-president-trumps-call-with-ukraine-s-leader

I don't see a reason to dislike this president. The transcript makes the call look like the president is doing his job to fight the corruption of those who tried to get him impeached. If Biden were corrupt is the president suppose to ignore it? Even if he were looking for dirt, it would be far less than what his opponents did to him, and it is nothing out of the ordinary. It is business as usual. I'm proud of the way Trump handled this call. The political left takes absolutely everything and spins it in the worst possible way for their political advantage.

Best wishes,

John Coffey

Friday, September 27, 2019

ADL focuses on BOWL CUTS and OK gesture

https://youtu.be/xgg2Zge1NYY

Judge Pirro blasts Democrats' impeachment inquiry: 'This is a setup'

A Climate Modeller Spills the Beans

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/09/a-climate-modeller-spills-the-beans/

Cartoons of the Day | National Review

Trump-Ukraine story is what you get when the media imagines the facts

The Death of American Citizenship

How America Lost Its Religion

The Transcript Is Damning — To Biden, Not Trump

Graham: Pentagon Review, Not Trump, Delayed Ukraine Aid

Political Journalism is Dead

USA, Saudia Arabia, Iran: A New Conflict in the Middle East?

Goodwin: Nancy Pelosi will regret rushing into impeachment push

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

The Worst Greenhouse Gas Might Surprise You

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdhnhknaJOg

Since 1880, which is a frequently quoted benchmark, the average temperature increase has been less than .01 degrees celsius per year. Since 1970 is has been about 0.015 per year. Since 1880 the average CO2 level increase has been less than one part per million per year. The current rate of increase is about 3 parts per million per year. The current level of sea-level rise is about 33 millimeters per decade. Over the last 30 years, it has been 25 millimeters per decade.

Disaster is not happening any time soon. It has been stated that we will run out of most fossil fuels by the year 2100, which is about the time we are predicted to double the atmospheric CO2 from current levels. What bothers me is that they keep moving the goalpost. They used to say that we need to prevent a 5 to 6 degree temperature increase by the year 2100 because that would be disastrous, but a 2.5 degree temperature increase would be manageable. However, reality didn't meet up with their predictions of disaster ( https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/ ),  so now they are saying that we need to prevent a 2-degree increase by the year 2100, but 1.5 degrees would be manageable. They spout a catchy slogan, "Half a degree makes a difference." The IPCC recently proposed spending 122 trillion dollars to prevent that half-degree difference, which is just absurd.

The scientific community is by no means united on what the Climate Sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is. Past ranges were from 2 to 12 degrees celsius. The IPCC gives a generally accepted range of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees, and they give 3 degrees as an average. Some people are still saying that it is over 5 degrees. The climate alarmism skeptics give a range from about 0.5 to 2.3 degrees with 1 to 2 degrees being the most common. If you look at the actual CO2 and temperature data from 1880, then you get a climate sensitivity of about 2.2 to 2.3 degrees. This assumes that CO2 is the only forcing factor. Some people are claiming that solar radiance plays a much bigger role than what the IPCC predicts, which minimizes the effect of solar radiance.

Most of the disagreement is over the feedbacks which are both positive and negative. For at least 20 years the skeptics have claimed that increased cloud cover will provide negative feedback to temperature increase. The IPCC claims that clouds will be a positive feedback. Nobody really knows for sure, and the IPCC has pretty much admitted that they don't know how to factor clouds. However, we are doing the experiment despite the best efforts of presumably well-intentioned people, so we are going to find out.

Nuclear Fusion will be a reality within 20 years, which will make this whole argument seem like much ado about nothing.

History will remember this as a time of mass hysteria. This hysteria has been driven by people who are pushing both a green and a socialist agenda. People have admitted that this is as much about changing the economic system as it is about protecting the climate.

The IPCC is by no means an unbiased organization. About 1/3 of the people on the IPCC belong to an environmental lobbying organization. The head of IPCC said that disastrous climate change was his religion. The IPCC has tried to censor papers written by skeptics, and skeptical scientists can't get funding. The Climategate scandal showed that they were trying to hide the big dip in temperature that happened in 2007. Scientists with skeptical views are getting fired or pushed out from universities.

Both NASA and the NOAA have taken past temperature data that has been known for decades and altered it to make the current warming look worse. They defend this practice. Up to half of all current temperature "data" are just estimates based on models. This distortion of science should be criminal.

Almost everybody is ignoring the positive benefits of CO2. Patrick Moore does the best job of talking about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWahKIG4BE4&t=1500s

Best wishes,

John Coffey

Is Universal Basic Income The Key To The Future? | Answers With Joe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4W8p3b2p58

In the past, automation did not result in a loss of jobs.  This could change and we would have to deal with it if it does, but I don't take it as a given.

Paying people not to work means that fewer people will work, and this is both bad for society and bad for people's psychology; how would you feel living off the hard work of other people?  Most people have a basic understanding of fairness, where they believe that if people get something they didn't earn, then that is unfair.  You have to rob someone to do it.

If people are suffering then I believe that you should help them.  We do that already, but for the moment there is no shortage of jobs nor opportunity.

People imagine that the current system is unfair, and maybe it is a little, but I think that this gets blown out of proportion to promote a socialist agenda.  (The best way today to get rich and promote special interests and corporate interests is to use the government bureaucracy to your advantage.  In this way the system has become corrupt.)  If there are things that we need to deal with, then let's deal with them, but I don't think that socialism is the best solution.

Best wishes,

John Coffey

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

The Ideology of the First Order

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAVeyXwy3BE

The original Fascists advocated an economy controlled by the state for the purpose of serving the state.  Nazism also advocated this.

Monday, September 16, 2019

Stable Climate

We are fortunate to live in a geologically stable period. In 535 AD, a supervolcano blew away one island in the Philipines creating an 18-month nuclear winter world wide. However, that's small potatoes compared to what this planet has been through. We have enjoyed about 12,000 years of relative comfort after the last period of glaciation. This brief warm period is predicted to go away in another 10,000 years. The further you go back in time, the more extreme some of the events have been, including at least five mass extinctions. One of these was caused by an asteroid strike and another may have been caused by a deadly gamma-ray burst from space. Twice, the planet has frozen solid, covered in a mile or more of ice worldwide. In the very early days of planet Earth, a Mars-sized object hit the Earth scooping out enough material to create the moon.  

--

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Fwd: Finally a step towards ending border insanity

The U.S. Supreme Court late Wednesday gave the Trump administration permission to enforce its toughest restriction yet on asylum seekers at the southern border

As a result, the government can now refuse to consider a request for asylum from anyone who failed to apply for it in another country after leaving home but before coming here. The order means, for instance, that migrants from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador cannot seek asylum in the U.S. if they didn't first ask for it in Mexico.



Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Inside 9/11 Zero Hour

National Geographic made a great documentary about the 9/11 attacks called "Inside 9/11 Zero Hour." I made an effort to watch this on youtube every year on September 11, just because I thought it was important to not forget.

The video I used to watch on youtube doesn't seem to be there anymore. There is still video available, but the video quality is not great.


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Sunday, September 8, 2019

Bill Maher on David Koch's Death: 'I Hope The End Was Painful'

"He and his brother have done more than anybody to fund climate science deniers for decades, so f—him. The Amazon is burning up. I'm glad he's dead, and I hope the end was painful," Maher said.

It is a myth that the Amazon rain forest produces the world's oxygen.  Whenever plants are consumed, whether that be by animals or by bacteria due to decay, it takes an equal amount of oxygen to metabolize the plants.

The Republicans Are Dropping Like Flies

Saturday, August 24, 2019

Patrick Moore - The Power of Truth

I have seen many videos covering anthropogenic global warming, but this is by far the best one.  Patrick Moore says everything I have been saying for years and then some.  He does a better job of documenting and graphing the relevant information.

From Alberta's 6th annual "Freedom School" conference, on "Things that Matter: An Agenda for Alberta".


The first 14 minutes are about his background.  Then he talks about various environmental issues and finally starts a one hour talk about Climate Change 24 minutes into the video.

Re: Almost Every Major Franchise is Compromised

Gillette has canceled there SJW commercials, because reportedly they lost 8 billion dollars. 

I like it when the free market sends a clear message. 

Best wishes,

John Coffey

On Aug 23, 2019, at 2:00 PM, Albert Nelms wrote:

Get woke, go broke! The video speaks about movie franchises. Interesting to hear the left doesn't mind losing a few billion dollars as long as their SJW agenda is served to the masses.

Friday, August 16, 2019

EPSTEIN DEAD: 5 Hard Facts You NEED to Know!

New Asian flu?

From: utahtrout 

However, it may be a sign of a much more troubling problem. China has some issues eerily similar to what other Asian countries had just prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis. That event two decades ago has been analyzed in great detail. It was triggered by a debt default of two companies: Somprasong Land (a major Thai property developer) and Finance One (one of Thailand's largest finance companies). Currency traders began to short the Thai currency, and eventually it broke its peg to the U.S. dollar, resulting in a 40% collapse in value. This steep drop made paying back dollar-denominated loans impossible. Currency weakness spread to South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. All their currencies declined dramatically --between 34% and 83% against the dollar. Equity markets around the world, including the U.S., experienced significant declines

While the trigger was a debt default as financial conditions shifted, the underlying factors had long been in place – these were export-driven economies that had close government co-operation with preferred manufacturers, subsidies, favorable financial deals, massive debt-financed growth and a currency pegged to the U.S dollar. Sound familiar?



Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Is the IPCC a reliable source of information on matters pertaining to climate change? Why? - Quora

"There are problems with the IPCC reports according to me:"

i) IPCC was not founded to simply aggregate climate science findings but to collect evidence for man-made climate change. This one-eyed look at the results over-emphasized of course the human influence. The knowledge of the natural changes came second hand which explains the confusion surrounding the current Hiatus.

ii) WG1 is doing an excellent job in describing the science and should be read by anyone interested in the subject. The science presented is correct but do not cover all scientific findings and views (see above)

iii) WG2 and WG3 are based on the assumption that human induced climate change is real and indeed needs action. I would call this the political part of the IPCC-report since several policies are suggested which to me is outside the scope of science. Many of the contributors are affiliated with WWF, Greenpeace etc. which to me make this part of the IPCC-report less credible. And, among those climate scientists I know they disregard these parts altogether sticking to the WG1.

iv) The SPM (summary for policymakers) is written in parallell without looking at the WG1 draft (Yes its true) meaning that the content in the rest of the report cannot deviate too much from SPM. However, anyone with the slightest scientific training will note the difference between WG1 and SPM. I´d say that some of the conclusions and statements in the final SPM find no support in the WG1-part! (The latest report, AR5, actually downplayed the climate threat by for instance lowering the TCR value by some 30%. TCR = Transient Climate Response ; The value that determines the temperature outcome in the near future)

The IPCC is probably very aware of this. The WG1 part is vast and who has the time to read through it all (well I did) and then also make complaints? What are the chances that anyone would care? One can follow the process on how the text is processed on the IPCC homepage. Most remarks are dismissed by the lead author (=consensus Gate keepers) even though the remarks have serious peer-reviewed references backing up their arguments. Especially so, if the argument doesn't support the AGW theory. (And, yes, these remarks do exist!). That is how you create consensus....

Some voices from scholars on the IPCC and their methods:

1. Dr Robert Balling: "The IPCC notes that "No significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise during the 20th century has been detected." This did not appear in the IPCC Summary for Policymakers.

2. Dr John Christy: "Little known to the public is the fact that most of the scientists involved with the IPCC do not agree that global warming is occurring. Its findings have been consistently misrepresented and/or politicized with each succeeding report."

3. Dr Judith Curry: "I'm not going to just spout off and endorse the IPCC because I don't have confidence in the process."

4. Dr Robert Davis: "Global temperatures have not been changing as state of the art climate models predicted they would. Not a single mention of satellite temperature observations appears in the IPCC Summary for Policymakers."

5. Dr Willem de Lange: "In 1996 the IPCC listed me as one of approximately 3000 "scientists" who agreed that there was a discernible human influence on climate. I didn't. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis that runaway catastrophic climate change is due to human activities."

6. Dr Peter Dietze: "Using a flawed eddy diffusion model, the IPCC has grossly underestimated the future oceanic carbon dioxide uptake."

7. Dr John Everett: "It is time for a reality check. The oceans and coastal zones have been far warmer and colder than is projected in the present scenarios of climate change. I have reviewed the IPCC and more recent scientific literature and believe that there is not a problem with increased acidification, even up to the unlikely levels in the most-used IPCC scenarios."

8. Dr Eigil Friis-Christensen: "The IPCC refused to consider the sun's effect on the Earth's climate as a topic worthy of investigation. The IPCC conceived its task only as investigating potential human causes of climate change."

9. Dr Vincent Gray: "The [IPCC] climate change statement is an orchestrated litany of lies."

10. Dr Mike Hulme: "Claims such as '2500 of the world's leading scientists have reached a consensus that human activities are having a significant influence on the climate' are disingenuous … The actual number of scientists who backed that claim was only a few dozen."

11. Dr Georg Kaser: "This number [of receding glaciers reported by the IPCC] is not just a little bit wrong, it is far out by any order of magnitude … It is so wrong that it is not even worth discussing."

12. Dr Aynsley Kellow: "I'm not holding my breath for criticism to be taken on board, which underscores a fault in the whole peer review process for the IPCC: there is no chance of a chapter [of the IPCC report] ever being rejected for publication, no matter how flawed it might be."

13. Dr Madhav Khandekar: "I have carefully analysed adverse impacts of climate change as projected by the IPCC and have discounted these claims as exaggerated and lacking any supporting evidence."

14. Dr Hans Labohm: "The alarmist passages in the IPCC Summary for Policymakers have been skewed through an elaborate and sophisticated process of spin-doctoring."

15. Dr Andrew Lacis: "There is no scientific merit to be found in the Executive Summary [of the IPCC report]. The presentation sounds like something put together by Greenpeace activists and their legal department."

16. Dr Chris Landsea: "I cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a [IPCC] process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound."

17. Dr Richard Lindzen: "The IPCC process is driven by politics rather than science. It uses summaries to misrepresent what scientists say and exploits public ignorance."

18. Dr Philip Lloyd: "I am doing a detailed assessment of the IPCC reports and the Summaries for Policy Makers, identifying the way in which the Summaries have distorted the science. I have found examples of a summary saying precisely the opposite of what the scientists said."

19. Dr Martin Manning: "Some government delegates influencing the IPCC Summary for Policymakers misrepresent or contradict the lead authors."

20. Dr Patrick Michaels: "The rates of warming, on multiple time scales, have now invalidated the suite of IPCC climate models. No, the science is not settled."

21. Dr Johannes Oerlemans: "The IPCC has become too political. Many scientists have not been able to resist the siren call of fame, research funding and meetings in exotic places that awaits them if they are willing to compromise scientific principles and integrity in support of the man-made global-warming doctrine."

22. Dr Roger Pielke: "All of my comments were ignored without even a rebuttal. At that point, I concluded that the IPCC Reports were actually intended to be advocacy documents designed to produce particular policy actions, but not a true and honest assessment of the understanding of the climate system."

23. Dr Tom Segalstad: "The IPCC global warming model is not supported by the scientific data."

24. Dr Fred Singer: "Isn't it remarkable that the Policymakers Summary of the IPCC report avoids mentioning the satellite data altogether, or even the existence of satellites — probably because the data show a slight cooling over the last 18 years, in direct contradiction of the calculations from climate models?"

25. Dr Richard Tol: "The IPCC attracted more people with political rather than academic motives. In AR4, green activists held key positions in the IPCC and they succeeded in excluding or neutralising opposite voices."

26. Dr David Wojick: "The public is not well served by this constant drumbeat of alarms fed by computer models manipulated by advocates."

27. Dr Eduardo Zorita: "Editors, reviewers and authors of alternative studies, analysis, interpretations, even based on the same data we have at our disposal, have been bullied and subtly blackmailed."

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Fwd: Planet Earth

First my comments and then the response.


On Sat, Aug 10, 2019, 2:41 PM John Coffey wrote:
Steve,

I am going to claim that I have researched this issue far more than most people. I have been concerned about this issue for 30 years, and I have tried to find out as much as I could about it.

I would refer you to figure 4 on this page:  https://www.pnas.org/content/99/7/4167

I made a distinction between the long term trend and the short term trend.  Throughout geological time, atmospheric CO2 has been on a major decline.  The first atmosphere on planet earth had a 42% CO2 level and now we talk about 400 parts per million.  Human beings have temporarily reversed this trend.  The CO2 level has dropped considerably over the last 40 million years,  and the Earth has also cooled considerably over that time. We entered a series of intermittent ice ages about ten million years ago and technically have been in an ice age for the last 2.58 million years.

Over the years I have tried to look at the actual data and I have not been impressed.  What we have done over a 200-year period has been a small blip on the geological scale.    

Whereas we are predicted to double the CO2 level to 800 PPM by the year 2100, this is about the time that we predicted to run out of most fossil fuels.  The direct effect of atmospheric CO2 is logarithmic, which means that you have to keep doubling it to have the same effect.  

I think that the whole point will be mute when nuclear fusion comes along in 10 to 20 years.      

The debate over CO2 boils down to what the Climate Sensitivity is to a doubling of atmospheric CO2.  This has everything to do with what the positive feedback is.  There is widespread disagreement on these numbers.  A great many predictions were saying that the Climate Sensitivity was going to be over 5 degrees celsius which is enough to melt the polar ice caps.  Some predictions were as high as 12 degrees.  However, the IPPC gives a generally accepted range of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees based on dozens of models and they also give 3 degrees as an average.   The reason the iPCC lowered the low end from 2 degrees to 1.5 is that they accepted a paper which got 1.5 degrees as the climate sensitivity from 20nth century data.  I noticed over decades that predictions keep getting revised downward.  Very recently, I have been seeing a movement to prevent us from rising 2 degrees by the year 2100, claiming that we can limit this to 1.5 degrees with the very catchy slogan "half a degree makes a difference."  This is like they are admitting that the Climate Sensitivity is only 2 degrees.   Maybe half a degree does make a difference, but I saw recently that someone was proposing that we spend 122 trillion dollars to prevent this half a degree difference, which is just absurd.

There is an overlap between what the climate alarmists and the climate skeptics believe.  Everybody agrees that the direct effect of doubling atmospheric CO2 level is a 1.1 increase atmospheric temperature.  However, there is much disagreement over how much effect the feedbacks will have, which is why there are widespread predictions on what the Climate Sensitivity is.  I saw one climate scientist claim that there is a 60% feedback.   However, the climate skeptics make predictions of Climate Sensitivity from .55 to 2.3 degrees, with most skeptics thinking that it is around 2 degrees.  It appears to me that the skeptics and the alarmists aren't as far as apart as they used to be.    

Many skeptics have pointed out that the temperature will vary by 30 degrees celsius in a single day, so they don't consider 2 degrees to be a major problem.  There are very legitimate scientists who think that climate threat has been exaggerated.   

Almost everybody is using the year 1880 as their starting point because that is presumably when accurate records were kept.  During that time the CO2 level has gone from 290.8 Parts per Million to 410 PPM.  (https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2)  Most sites are reporting a temperature increase of less than 1-degree celsius since 1880.  Something that I noticed is that since 1880 the average temperature increase has been less than 1/100th of a degree per year and the CO2 change has been less than 1 part per million per year.  In past years when I tried to look at actual data, I did some calculation and got 2.3 degrees as the Climate Sensitivity.   

I have always qualified my remarks by saying that I would like to see where the data takes us going forward.     

If you deleted the United States completely, the net effect on temperature by the year 2100 would only be about a tenth of a degree, because other countries like China are the major contributors.  China builds more coal plants every three years than what exists in the United States.

In past years I wrote the following.  Although wordy, I think that it has important points, although I have already made most of them.

Best wishes,

John Coffey 

The numbers are not very impressive.  Since 1880, which is the measure most people use, on average the CO2 level has gone up less than 1 part per million per year and the temperature has gone up less than 1/100th of a degree celsius per year.  You could argue that since about 1970 things have accelerated a little, but a little less than double.  The temperature went up on average of 0.016 degrees celsius pear year.  It is going take a very long time to reach the five degrees needed to melt the polar ice caps, which are according to every source going to take 5,000 years to melt.  Meanwhile we will be out of most fossil fuels by the year 2100 and coal will be gone by the 2150.  The only thing that will save us from running out of energy will be nuclear fusion, which fortunately is not that far off.

The amount of carbon on planet Earth by definition remains pretty much the same. Man has been burning fossil fuels, which puts carbon into the atmosphere. Where did the carbon in the fossil fuels come from? It mostly came from plants and bacteria that got buried underground due to geological processes. Over millions of years natural processes turned the plants and bacteria into fossil fuels. Where did the plants and bacteria get their carbon from? They got it from the atmosphere. The carbon that we are now putting into the atmosphere originally came from the atmosphere.

To better understand this, we have to understand the complete history of atmospheric carbon dioxide on planet Earth. The original earth atmosphere was an amazing 42% carbon dioxide compared with the roughly .04% that we have now. That original atmosphere had so much pressure that it could crush a man flat. About 2.5 billion years ago, cyanobacteria began using photosynthesis to convert carbon dioxide into free oxygen, which lead to the creation of our oxygen rich "third atmosphere" 2.3 billion years ago. At that time the carbon dioxide levels were about 7,000 parts per million, but it went into a somewhat steady but uneven decline because geological processes would sequester carbon underground. The decline was uneven because as part of the "carbon dioxide cycle", sometimes geological processes like volcanoes would cause massive amounts of carbon dioxide to be released back into the atmosphere.

Thirty million years ago during the Oligocene Epoch, the average temperature of the earth was about 7 degrees Celsius warmer than it is now. There was no ice on the poles, but the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was in rapid decline during this epoch. About 23 million years ago, at the beginning of the Neogene period, ice began to form on the poles. About ten million years ago, a series of intermittent ice ages began that continue to this day. I found one source that said that we are still technically in an ice age because we still have ice at the poles.

These ice ages helped create human evolution. The ice ages caused Africa to dry up which lead to some deforestation. This forced some arboreal (tree-dwelling) apes to venture onto land. About 7 million years ago, the first apes that could comfortably walk upright appeared. They had evolved a new type of pelvis that allowed upright locomotion, which is about three times more efficient when trying to cross land.

The first tool making ape that resembled modern humans, Homo habilis, arose 2.5 million years ago. It would be soon followed by Homo erectus, and then about 200,000 years ago, modern humans, Homo sapiens would arise. However, Homo sapiens almost died out. About 50,000 years ago an ice age in Europe had caused Africa to almost completely dry up. The total human population had dropped to 7,000 individuals living on the southern coast of Africa. During this period humans learned how to fish, make new tools, and create permanent dwellings. When the ice age abated, these humans with their new tools spread out to rest of the world at a pace of about a mile per year. This was the beginning of the Upper Paleolithic (Late Stone Age) period.

More ice ages would follow, and during each ice age human population would decline. It is no coincidence that all of human civilization (i.e. agriculture, use of metals) would arise during a "brief" warm period between two ice ages starting about 10,000 years ago. I have heard that no matter what we do, we will enter a new ice age in about 10,000 years from now, but I have also heard speculation that the next ice age will be delayed by global warming. This actually should be our goal, since humans have always declined during the ice ages and always prospered during the intermittent warm periods.

During the geological time period of the earth, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been on an uneven decline and mostly disappeared. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is necessary for plant growth, and I have read that we were running dangerously low on atmospheric carbon dioxide, about 00.02%, before mankind at least temporarily reversed the trend. I just read a wikipedia article that said that atmospheric carbon dioxide will eventually get so low that all plants and animals will die off. What mankind has done is put carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere that was previously there, thus possibly delaying the next ice age. Currently the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is about 00.04%.

Carbon dioxide by itself cannot cause significant global warming. There are diminished returns. Carbon dioxide has to double again to produce the same effect as the last doubling. The effect is not linear but logarithmic. What the alarmists are worried about, and they could be correct, is positive feedback. The warming of the earth causes more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, and water vapor is a much stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, thus causing more warming. If this were true, however, the last warming period around the year 2000 should caused a continuous positive feedback, a runaway greenhouse, which didn't happen. Instead temperatures went into a major decline and hit a really big low point in the year 2007.

The skeptics believe that increased cloud cover reflects sunlight back into space thus causing a negative feedback. The skeptics are not "global warming deniers", which is a pejorative phrase used by global warming theorists to make the skeptics sound like holocaust deniers. These skeptics actually believe in global warming. At least, the legitimate skeptical scientists do. They just think that global warming is happening at a rate slower than predicted by the theorists. I can point you to an article that shows that the positive feedback models have been contradicted by the actual temperature data, which in reality has been closer to the negative feedback models.

The worst case scenario is that the polar ice caps will melt. If that happens we will lose some coastlines and all of Florida due to sea level rise. However, according to what I just read, it will take 5,000 years for the polar ice caps to melt. In other words, these are processes that take a very long time to happen. In this century we are only looking at modest temperature increases. In the meantime, humans are very adaptable. We are only five to ten years away from creating the first workable prototypes of nuclear fusion. It might take 25 years for this to be practical, but at that point if we wanted to get rid of fossil fuels altogether, we could. I think that we will also see advances in solar power, which is already happening, and battery technology to store the energy created by solar. In other words, we have it within our means to avoid any possible disasters that might be coming.

--
Best wishes,

John Coffey


---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Steve
Date: Sat, Aug 10, 2019 at 3:00 PM
Subject: Re: Planet Earth
To: John Coffey 


Unfortunately the preponderance of scientific evidence is on my side. And I will take the data and analysis of the UN and NASA over your own.  We simply aren't going to agree here again.
Quite obviously the first atmosphere, while being formed by volcanic activity, would have contained higher levels of carbon dioxide. And of course there have been times when there had been higher global temperatures than current. Just not in human experience. 
The fact that most life occurs near water is also important, as ice continues fall from Antarctica. The amount of devastation to global life will be considerable, and is practically unavoidable, we will see begin seeing climate refugees within a decade. There is also the clear fact that climate change is among us already. Wildfires, droughts, superstorm, these are all at record levels. 
If humanity does survive we will never be the same.
Ultimately John, I am done having the argument with people whether or not climate change exists and the dangers of it, or whether or not we have played a role. I can entertain discussion about what can be done about it, but the answer seems to be very little.
This is another thing we just aren't going to see eye to eye on, I suggest we move on. The only reason I felt the need to respond is that you've gone on similar lines before and I think you have to be well aware of my position. 

Friday, August 9, 2019

Planet Earth

I think about things that maybe most people wouldn't worry about. We live in a violent universe. Earth recently had a near-miss with a bus-sized asteroid that could have wiped out a major city with a ten megaton blast. However, chances are it would have just exploded over an ocean someplace. It is unlikely to hit a city. However, there are also more asteroids out there.

The last time the supervolcano in Yellowstone National Park erupted 640,000 years ago, it destroyed life in several nearby states. By comparison, this makes the asteroid look like small potatoes. These explosions are so big they create their own weather over hundreds of miles. We are "overdue" for another eruption, which could wipe out half the country, but the experts say that it will not happen any time soon. I heard that NASA is trying to find a way to relieve some of the pressure below the park.

In 535 AD, multiple volcanic eruptions, and possibly a supervolcano, blackened out the sky everywhere on earth, creating an 18-month winter.

A couple of times in Earth's history the whole planet froze solid with a layer of ice a mile thick.

Over hundreds of millions of years, there have been several mass extinctions on planet Earth. At least one may have been caused by a gamma-ray burst. Gamma-ray bursts are massive amounts of deadly radiation from space given off by black hole formation. Although such events hitting Earth are extremely rare, they have the potential to wipe out all life on Earth.

The Earth was hit by an object the size of the planet Mars 4.5 billion years ago. This is how we got the Moon, which is made of material from the Earth's crust.

These catastrophic events are fortunately very rare.

We have been technically living in an ice age for 2.5 million years. There have been several periods of massive glaciation in human history. These usually had devastating effects on the human population. The human race was almost wiped out 50,000 years ago. All of human civilization, such as farming, writing, working with metals, building cities, occurred during a "brief" 10,000 year warm period after the last period of glaciation. We have been fortunate to live in a "brief" time of very stable climate. No matter what humans do with CO2, and we are going to run out of fossil fuels in 100 years anyway, we expect another period of glaciation 10,00 years from now.

The Earth's orbit around the sun is not entirely stable. The slow precession of the orbit causes dramatic effects on the climate.

Although you could argue that rising CO2 is an issue in the short run, over the long term the decline of CO2 has been very dramatic and looks very bleak. Over the last 40 million years atmospheric CO2 levels have been in a nosedive. This is because natural processes sequester CO2 in the ground. During the last period of glaciation, CO2 levels got down to a record low of 180 parts per million, which is just barely above the level where all terrestrial plants die off from a lack of CO2. If humans are around for another 10,000 years then we will have to deal with this problem.

  

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Great power competition



The New Concept Everyone in Washington Is Talking About


Twitter

Twitter froze the McConnell campaign's "Team Mitch" account this week after the campaign posted videos of protesters outside McConnell's home, which included violent threats against the Kentucky senator.

"Twitter locked our account for posting the video of real-world, violent threats made against Mitch McConnell," McConnell campaign manager Kevin Golden said in a statement on Wednesday. "This is the problem with the speech police in America today."

"The users were temporarily locked out of their accounts for a Tweet that violated our violent threats policy, specifically threats involving physical safety," a Twitter spokesperson told Fox News.



Sunday, August 4, 2019

Fwd: Mosquitos change everything


How Mosquitoes Changed Everything

They slaughtered our ancestors and derailed our history. And they're not finished with us yet.






---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: John Coffey <john2001plus@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Aug 7, 2018 at 8:43 PM
Subject: Let's Kill All The Mosquitoes! No, really.
To: 





Thursday, July 25, 2019

Thor 4: Love and Thunder: Natalie Portman, female Thor

Natalie Portman is going to play female Thor in Thor 4.

https://www.cnet.com/news/thor-4-love-and-thunder-natalie-portman-female-thor-lgbtq-character-plot-release-date/

Almost every time they do something like this, they lose money. They give us movies that people don't want to see.

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Just Plain Racist

In response to ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfs3SSNB6rI

Race is not a scientific concept. It is just something we made up.
We lived in the most racially harmonious period of our history. That was about 10 years ago. We elected a black President and people didn't care about race. Since then, the left has tried to call almost everyone racist and tell people that they are victims who are defined by their "race". Some school children in my state were taught that "chess" is racist because White moves first. (I am an Expert rated chess player.) The left has accused almost every Republican of being a racist, but nothing could be further from the truth. The Republicans don't care diddly squat about race. They tried separately to convince Collin Powell and Condoleeza Rice to run for President. And the Tea Party is not, as is sometimes defined on this channel, a bunch of extreme redneck alt-right racists. The Tea Party was a response to excessive government spending. The Tea Party's favorite candidate (and mine) was Herman Cain. Instead, it is the political left that is constantly trying to divide and define people by race. 

To show how the left distorts things, they have called both Ben Shapiro and Dennis Prager, both Jewish men, nazis. 

This channel tried to claim that southern racists switched over to the Republican party and that standard Republican limited government positions are dog whistles for racism. This is an appalling incorrect bias and insulting to all the non-racists who believe in the Republican platform. What few members of racists groups that are left in this country, even if on the Republican side, are in the extreme fringe that nobody likes. 

Donald Trump is frequently misinterpreted, often by people who find it convenient to misinterpret Trump. They always talk about Charlottesville. When the protest started, the news reported that the protest consisted of some protestors plus White Supremacists. President Trump opposed taking down the statues for the same reason I did, which is that you should not try to erase your history. (However, the video makes a good point about this.) When he said that there were good people on both sides, I thought that this was correct because this is what I heard in the news. Trump went on to clarify his remarks to say that he wasn't talking about the White Supremacists and that those were bad people.  

Seriously, you should know better.

--
Best wishes,

John Coffey

http://www.entertainmentjourney.com

Monday, July 15, 2019

Trump and Tweets

I understand what Donald Trump was trying to say, but the way he said it was incredibly poor judgment. It is bad, but the left has called every Republican since 1980 racist. I think that they exploit the issue of race to make something bad look even worse than it is. I don't think that it was racist, nor do I think that Trump is racist, but I do think that it was inappropriate. It shows poor judgment that he made his point the way he did. I do not understand why people in his administration neither prevented this nor insist that he apologize. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ob4x6Nv67mk

This leads me to believe that Trump doesn't mind negative attention as long as he gets attention.

--

Saturday, June 29, 2019

From my friend Douglas Taffinder

Mostly North Charleston SC

We grew up in a time when most everyone treated each other with respect. We didn't eat out much just once in awhile when mom & dad took us out for a treat. We drank homemade Kool-Aid, ate peanut butter & jelly sandwiches, hot dogs, but mostly home made meals consisting of a lot of grilled cheese, hamburgers and spaghetti. Our treat was homemade chocolate chip cookies.

We grew up during a time when it was simple. We went outside to play. We couldn't wait to get home from school and "change" into our play clothes, because you didn't play in school clothes, because they were so full of dirt and who knows what else. We were not afraid to play outside and get dirty, if you were so clean you didn't NEED to take a bath, yup a bath, showers were something people had in hotels attached to the tube there..

We played ball, rode bikes, Big wheels,climbed trees, built forts, jumped rope, kick ball, Jax, played football at the neighborhood playground, kick the can, always played outside till dark. You never feared going to school, never had to prepare for a shooting. You never played inside the house, or even had snacks between meals. A time when there was no bottled water and we turned on the hose to get a drink. No cable t.v., just 3 or so channels with an antenna on the roof, no remote controls, no cell phones, no internet, or YouTube. A landline phone we had to dial with a 5 foot cord is all we knew. And we shared it with everybody in the house. And if you had a friend more than 5 miles away well that's long distance. So forget it. Start writing a letter.

Friends were kids who lived near you and you could walk to each other's house, and did multiple times a day.. If you wanted to play with one of your friends you would go to the house stand on the sidewalk and yell there name until either they came running out, or their parent came out and said "No not today", at which time you dropped your head and hashed our PLAN B, because going back home and sitting in the house was the LAST thing you wanted to do, that was what you did ONLY when you got into trouble or you where sick!! Both were torture because you could sit in your window and see your friends outside having fun "without you"!!We watched some cartoons on Saturday morning. But they were taken away if on restriction. If you were bad in school, you got in trouble in school and when you got home you got in trouble again, because your parents already knew. We would ride bikes for hours and talk until the street lights came on, because that was your "curfew". You could trust your neighbors. You felt safe.

You LEARNED from your parents instead of disrespecting them and treating them as if they knew nothing. Parents took pride in being honest and having a strong work ethic. We were taught to respect guns, authority, elders, and America. We never thought about taking a life, or being inhumane to animals. We all ate around the dinner table and talked to each other as a family when possible.

We asked each other how their day was and talked about what we learned in school. We said the Pledge of Allegiance and listened to our teachers, and respected them. We watched what we said around our elders because we knew If we DISRESPECTED any grown up we would get our behinds busted, it wasn't called abuse, IT WAS CALLED DISCIPLINE! We held doors, carried groceries and gave up our seat without being asked, to someone who needed it.

You didn't hear curse words on the radio in songs or TV. "Please" and "Thank you" were part of our daily vocabulary! And "Bless you" if someone sneezed, even strangers and NO ONE was offended by the term..

Re-post if you're thankful for your childhood and will never forget where you came from! Wouldn't it be nice if it were possible to get back to this way of life? It was so primitive, yet we all miss it??

Copy and paste... change to the Town where you lived. Lots of good time and memories...the good ol' days.

Learn to RESPECT not EXPECT!