Tuesday, May 30, 2023

El Niño Is Coming. How Will It Change the Weather Where You Are? 🌎


Violence and controversies during the George Floyd protests

Some anti-capitalist, anti-fascist and police abolitionist groups consider the civil unrest in the United States as part of a broader revolution. The Pacific Northwest Youth Liberation Front from Portland are a police abolitionist group who seek to "show the world that the fire of this uprising is still burning strong, and that flames will just keep getting bigger until the police state has been dismantled once and for all". Speaking at the Mark O. Hatfield United States Courthouse in mid July, one Portland rally organizer said that she organizes for "the abolition of not just the militarized police state but also the United States as we know it"

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Why Did People Volunteer To Be In WWI?

Is the CO2 greenhouse effect saturated?

John Coffey
7 minutes ago (edited)
We have almost doubled the CO2 level already from the preindustrial level, and we aren't experiencing a 2 to 4 degree increase in temperature.  Instead, we are looking at a 1 to 1.1-degree increase.   The current rate of change is barely over 1/100th of a degree per year.  Climate Alarmism depends upon as-of-yet unproven positive feedback effects, which likely exist, but we also have to factor in the negative feedback.

Right now we should be in the rapid cooling phase of the Milankovich Cycles and headed toward the next period of mass glaciation, except that those pesky humans have warmed the planet a tiny bit.  Thank goodness for that.

Saturday, May 27, 2023

"I looked at the recent bird flu data, and now I'm really scared."

An elderly friend of mine in Salt Lake City died from the flu.

According to the video, there is no pandemic of the Bird Flu right now, but conditions are ripe for one to happen.  It has infected animals close enough to humans for it to have the potential to spread to people.

The video claims that public officials are trying to prevent an outbreak.  It would be good if we could avoid another pandemic.

Friday, May 26, 2023

BLM Bankrupt?!

Does COVID Mess With Your DNA?

What I gather from the video is that the methylation of genes is a natural bodily response to infection. People with long COVID appear to have overly persistent and/or inappropriate methylation leading to chronic inflammation.

IPCC pressure tactics exposed: "Hide the decline."

John Coffey
1 minute ago
As much as I am a climate alarmism skeptic, what I gather from the video is that the most recent tree ring data is aberrant from the actual temperature data and other proxies.  So they threw out the data that didn't match recent reality as they understood it from the temperature data.  There was no "decline" if you believe the temperature data is correct.

However, they replaced the missing data with fake data making all the data appear to agree.   They simply could have excluded the tree ring data because of its apparent unreliability.

Many people have called into question the temperature record, because of the urban heat island effect.  I also have heard that roughly half of all temperature data is not data at all but estimates based on models.  This leads to apparent circular reasoning where the models are based on data, but some of the data is based on models.  Why isn't this a problem?

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

John Durham’s Report and a Presidency in Crisis - WSJ

"Mr. Durham's findings will be old hat and ignored by a media that ignored such information even when it was new hat. Even to the most receptive audience, the news will be eclipsed by what has happened since. The Clinton campaign engaged in good, old-fashioned political smears, albeit helped by fellow travelers in the FBI. This new low in American politics has since been succeeded by the layer cake of falsehood cooked up by 51 former top intelligence officials, including three former leaders of the CIA, to flaunt a new fake Russia conspiracy to get Joe Biden elected.

Because of Mr. Durham's timing, you're reading an expurgated version of a column that would have noted that, in any universe where news reporting hadn't been corrupted by the need to appear anti-Trump, Mr. Biden's would be a presidency in crisis.

Even so, the news blackout can't conceal the suspicious details unearthed by congressional investigators about Biden family bank accounts, shell companies and transfers from shady foreign actors. It can't conceal that Mr. Biden may owe his presidency to a de facto U.S. intelligence agency operation to bamboozle voters about his son's laptop.

A Dixie-whistling press can't suppress a whopping factoid: Though Mr. Biden's likeliest opponent has been found liable for sexual assault, is under indictment for payoffs to a porn star, and soon may face various federal charges, Mr. Trump is still beating Mr. Biden in some national polls.

Last week's CNN town hall, despite much huffing and puffing, rightly frightens Democrats. It shows Mr. Trump ambulatory and energetic, qualities that no amount of pharmaceutical intervention can supply Mr. Biden.

For several days the New York Times featured prominently on its home page the headline "As Biden Runs Again, Black Voters' Frustration Bubbles." Mr. Biden thereupon ran off to frighten the graduating class of Howard University, who likely have their pick of job offers from name-brand employers, with imaginary white supremacists hiding under every bridge.

Outrage and mockery alternate when Russia characterizes its enemies in Ukraine as Nazis. But of course if the Putin regime characterized its Ukrainian opponents as they actually are, the Russian people might start questioning their own government. Mr. Biden engages in the same dodge with his constant invocations of white racism. Don't kid yourself. This is political desperation at work."

Sunday, May 14, 2023

Conspiracy theory - Wikipedia

Talking to a friend, I made the comment that a "conspiracy theory" is a belief in a secret cabal that we don't have good evidence for but people think exists anyway.  This is different from a group of people pushing a mutually held political agenda that is well-known.  A good example is the World Economic Forum, which has been accused of conspiracy, but makes its agenda public.  Some have accused the World Economic Forum of pushing socialism, but this is a matter of interpretation.  It seems to me that they are pushing a "command economy", but the problem is that command economies are associated with dictators and fascists.

As far as I can tell, it is not true that the World Economic Forum wants to kill millions of people.  This would be a conspiracy theory.

I am very much surprised by the large percentage of people who believe in conspiracy theories.

'Difference from conspiracy

A conspiracy theory is not simply a conspiracy, which refers to any covert plan involving two or more people.[10] In contrast, the term "conspiracy theory" refers to hypothesized conspiracies that have specific characteristics. For example, conspiracist beliefs invariably oppose the mainstream consensus among those people who are qualified to evaluate their accuracy, such as scientists or historians.[11] Conspiracy theorists see themselves as having privileged access to socially persecuted knowledge or a stigmatized mode of thought that separates them from the masses who believe the official account.[10] Michael Barkun describes a conspiracy theory as a "template imposed upon the world to give the appearance of order to events".[10]

Real conspiracies, even very simple ones, are difficult to conceal and routinely experience unexpected problems.[54] In contrast, conspiracy theories suggest that conspiracies are unrealistically successful and that groups of conspirators, such as bureaucracies, can act with near-perfect competence and secrecy. The causes of events or situations are simplified to exclude complex or interacting factors, as well as the role of chance and unintended consequences. Nearly all observations are explained as having been deliberately planned by the alleged conspirators.[54]

In conspiracy theories, the conspirators are usually claimed to be acting with extreme malice.[54] As described by Robert Brotherton:

The malevolent intent assumed by most conspiracy theories goes far beyond everyday plots borne out of self-interest, corruption, cruelty, and criminality. The postulated conspirators are not merely people with selfish agendas or differing values. Rather, conspiracy theories postulate a black-and-white world in which good is struggling against evil. The general public is cast as the victim of organised persecution, and the motives of the alleged conspirators often verge on pure maniacal evil. At the very least, the conspirators are said to have an almost inhuman disregard for the basic liberty and well-being of the general population. More grandiose conspiracy theories portray the conspirators as being Evil Incarnate: of having caused all the ills from which we suffer, committing abominable acts of unthinkable cruelty on a routine basis, and striving ultimately to subvert or destroy everything we hold dear.[54]'

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Illegal Immigration

 I found an email that I wrote a couple of months prior to the 2016 election.

My ability to write has improved over time, so I touched up parts of it.

We have reached a point where you can get into trouble for just talking about issues like this.  You can be blocked on social media or ostracized in other ways.  We have experienced a loss of free speech and this has become normal.


From: John Coffey

Concerning immigration and illegal immigration in the United States:

1.  Although I believe in freedom and lean libertarian, I am not an anarchist.  I believe that we need laws to protect people and those laws should be enforced.

2.  I have always been concerned about population growth.  Increasing population strains resources.  Labor itself is a resource, but every new person needs land, housing, water, food, farms, and roads to support that person.  As the demand for natural resources increases, the cost of those resources goes up.  It makes life more expensive.  I have heard some people say that we have plenty of land, but the most desirable places are already taken.  In highly crowded areas, housing costs are astronomical.  As the country becomes more crowded, it makes life more inconvenient and there are many problems associated with overcrowding.  

Hypothetically you could reach a point where the country is so crowded that people would realize that we need to stop and control the population.  For example, to be as crowded as Europe the United States would have to have a billion people.  By definition, there has to be a point where any reasonable person would say that we have too many people.   Wouldn't it be better to not reach that point?

Improvements in technology will allow some steady population growth.  In a free market, people will make decisions on whether to have children based on the resources available to them.  In that respect, it can be a self-limiting system, although the long-term trend will always be to increase the population because the natural human tendency is to procreate.  

One way to distort the natural population increase is through too much immigration.  I honestly believe that with open borders that a billion people would want to come here.  Maybe not all would have the means to come here, but the population would increase until the United States is no longer a desirable place to live.

Therefore we need limits on immigration.  You can debate what those limits should be, but regardless of what they are, they should be enforced.  People entering this country illegally are lawbreakers and should be deported.

3. There are real threats in the world, and we should not be bringing in people whose viewpoint is fundamentally antagonistic to ours.  I understand that people want compassion, but the cost of being compassionate and wrong is too great.  We could have another 9-11 or worse.

Europe is self-destructing because of immigration. We have seen repeated terrorist attacks and rape capitals forming.  The United States has also had terrorist attacks by people who came here legally.

4. The political left uses immigration to its advantage because naturalized immigrants typically vote Democrat.  As a result, the demographics have changed radically to the point where a free-market conservative has little chance of getting elected.  Meanwhile, the country is headed toward a financial crisis because the government has promised people far more than it can deliver.

5. Trump was mostly right in his comments about illegal immigrants.  Statistics show that they are committing higher rates of crime, rape, and murder.  The California prisons are full of illegal immigrants.  I personally have been threatened by illegal immigrants and witnessed crimes committed by them.  When I visited a court in Salt Lake City, every case was a Hispanic facing criminal charges.

Immigration is not the same as one person moving from one state to another.  It is a false equivalence.  Immigration is (mostly) importing poverty.  Illegal immigration is importing crime at a rate higher than average.  

I think that the American people are wise enough to know that they have been screwed on illegal immigration, which is why Trump has gotten support.  He has been the only one with the courage to speak about it.

I am for immigration.  I am against illegal immigration.

Best wishes,

John Coffey

Sunday, May 7, 2023

Thoughts on Chick-fil-A (PODCAST E52)

John Coffey
1 minute ago
In recent years, the socialist left has not tolerated any dissent from their far-left positions. They will try to censor or intimidate anyone who dares challenge them. They do not want to live in harmony with the political right, but they want the right to be silenced and destroyed. 

The Southern Poverty Law Center has been unfairly labeling many conservatives as hateful or racist. No doubt there are legitimate racists who need to be called out, but they go too far pushing the far-left agenda. 

I am glad that gay marriage has been legalized. I have advocated this for decades. 

However, I am not trying to boycott or silence people that I disagree with. I respect that people have different views, often fueled by deeply held religious beliefs. I cannot force people to agree with me, and their beliefs are irrelevant as to whether I eat at Chick-fil-A.

Thursday, May 4, 2023

Free and fair elections

"76% of the people in Hong Kong who died of COVID were vaccinated"

There are problems with this idea.  People in Hong Kong don't get the same vaccine as Americans.  Most get the ineffective Chinese vaccine.  You would have to compare the death rates with other people in the world.   

The overall mortality rate in the United States among the unvaccinated has varied from 2 to 10 times as much.

"In January, only about 25% of Hong Kong residents aged 80 and older had been jabbed, with the rate among care home residents even lower. Almost all of those who perished in the fifth wave, about 72%, were unvaccinated."

How the ‘Unvaccinated’ Got It Right


I am disturbed by how every commentator on the political right has turned anti-COVID-vaccine to one degree or another.  While most are against the vaccine, some think it should only be given to the most vulnerable population because of reported vaccine risk.

The article cherry-picks its data and makes a number of false claims.  It hits every anti-vaccine point that has come up over the last three years and relies on emotional language to make its points.

1. It is not true that the vaccinated die at a higher rate than the unvaccinated.  The data shows so much the opposite that it takes extreme mental gymnastics to come to this conclusion.

The article points to data from the vaccine trial.  The problem with this is that the vaccine trial was given to a wide range of people, including nursing home patients who might have died anyway, so any discussion of the death rate from the initial trial is not proof of anything.  https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/08/no-more-vaccinated-people-didnt-die-from-covid-in-pfizers-vaccine-trial.html

There has been a ton of research after the initial trial.  I have read a number of papers that support the safety and efficacy of the vaccines.

I saw one study that indicated that 1 out of a million people might die from the vaccine, usually people with comorbidities.  This is roughly the same risk of death every time you get in a car.  However, the disease has killed 1 out of 92 infected people in the United States, usually people with comorbidities.  Young healthy people have also died from COVID.   Nobody claims that the vaccine is perfectly safe, or effective, but the relative risk is much lower.  One out of every 285 Americans has died from COVID.  I lost a cousin to COVID.

The efficacy of the vaccine has changed as the disease has evolved.  Because of this, many people claim that the government lied to us about the efficacy of the vaccine.  Although the vaccine is now less effective at preventing the disease, the data shows that it is still 97% effective at preventing hospitalization and death.

2.  It is not true that the vaccine is untested.

3.  The vaccine was not tested for stopping the spread of the virus.  

Although initially true, there wasn't time before the Emergency Use Authorization to determine whether the vaccine stopped the spread of the virus.  Most commentators take this to mean that it doesn't.  However, I have read more recent scientific studies that show that vaccinated people are much less likely to spread the disease.

If a member of your family has COVID, wouldn't you prefer that they be vaccinated?  According to at least one study, the vaccinated are less likely to spread the disease to a family member.

4.  The article claims that the vaccine mRNA might not be eliminated inside the body, without offering any proof, further making the unsupported claim that this could harm our health.

It is a well-known medical fact that mRNA is destroyed in less than a second after it is used.  Your body is making and disposing of mRNA every microsecond.

Even if some of the vaccine mRNA stays around, there is no vehicle for the mRNA to enter other cells.  The vaccine needs a lipid delivery mechanism to work.  Once the mRNA enters the cell, it loses this mechanism.

5.  The article claims that there are no long-term vaccine risk studies.

This is most likely true, although it depends upon what you mean by long-term.  There have been more studies on the COVID disease and vaccination than any other disease.

"no long-term side effects have been detected. "

However, the long-term effects of the COVID disease have been severe, with about 11% of the infected getting "long covid".  This can be life-threatening or completely debilitating.

6.  The article claims that the government violated people's civil liberties and engaged in censorship, and this is a good reason to not get vaccinated.

The first part of this statement is true, but it would be like saying that because you live in communist China you should not get vaccinated.  The efficacy and safety of the vaccine is a completely different issue from the oppressive nature of governments.

that whole Pluto thing was wild